Unassociated Document
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, DC 20549

FORM 8-K
 
CURRENT REPORT PURSUANT
TO SECTION 13 OR 15(D) OF THE
SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

August 16, 2005
(Date of earliest event reported)

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.
(Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)

Delaware
(State or Other Jurisdiction of Incorporation)

1-8957
91-1292054
(Commission File Number)
(IRS Employer Identification No.)
   
   
19300 International Boulevard, Seattle, Washington
98188
(Address of Principal Executive Offices)
(Zip Code)
   
 
1-8957 91-1292054
(Commission File Number) (IRS Employer Identification No.)

19300 International Boulevard, Seattle, Washington 98188
(Address of Principal Executive Offices) (Zip Code)

(206) 392-5040
(Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code)

(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

o Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

o Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

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FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
This report may contain forward-looking statements that are intended to be subject to the safe harbor protection provided by Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements relate to future events or our future financial performance and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause our actual results or performance to be materially different from those indicated by any forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such as “forecast,”“may,”“will,”“could,”“should,”“expect,”“plan,”“believe,”“potential” or other similar words indicating future events or contingencies. Some of the things that could cause our actual results to differ from our expectations are: changes in our operating costs including fuel, which can be volatile; the competitive environment and other trends in our industry; our ability to meet our cost reduction goals; labor disputes; economic conditions; our reliance on automated systems; increases in government fees and taxes; actual or threatened terrorist attacks; global instability and potential U.S. military actions or activities; insurance costs; changes in laws and regulations; liability and other claims asserted against us; operational disruptions; compliance with financial covenants; our ability to attract and retain qualified personnel; third-party vendors and partners; continuing operating losses; our significant indebtedness; downgrades of our credit ratings and the availability of financing. For a discussion of these and other risk factors, see Item 7 of the Company’s Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2004 on Form 10-K. All of the forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the risk factors discussed therein. These risk factors may not be exhaustive. We operate in a continually changing business environment, and new risk factors emerge from time to time. Management cannot predict such new risk factors, nor can it assess the impact, if any, of such new risk factors on our business or events described in any forward-looking statements. We disclaim any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements after the date of this report to conform them to actual results.

ITEM 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure 
Pursuant to 17 CFR Part 243 (“Regulation FD”), the Company is submitting information relating to its financial and operational outlook for 2005. This report includes information regarding forecasts of available seat miles (ASMs), cost per available seat mile (CASM) excluding fuel consumption and restructuring charges, as well as certain actual results for revenue passenger miles (RPMs), load factor and revenue per available seat mile (RASM), for its subsidiaries Alaska Airlines, Inc. and Horizon Air. Our disclosure of operating cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel and restructuring charges provides us the ability to measure and monitor our performance without these items. The most directly comparable GAAP measure is total operating expense per available seat mile. However, due to the large fluctuations in fuel prices, we are unable to predict total operating expense for any future period with any degree of certainty. In addition, we believe the disclosure of financial performance without mark-to-market hedging gains is useful to investors in evaluating our ongoing operational performance. Please see the cautionary statement under “Forward-Looking Information.”

In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the following information shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. This Report will not be deemed an admission as to the materiality of any information required to be disclosed solely to satisfy the requirements of Regulation FD.

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References in this report on Form 8-K to “Air Group,”“the Company,”“we,”“us,” and “our” refer to Alaska Air Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries, unless otherwise specified. Alaska Airlines, Inc. and Horizon Air Industries, Inc. are referred to as “Alaska” and “Horizon,” respectively, and together as our “airlines.”
 
Third Quarter 2005
During the second quarter of 2005, Alaska announced a reduction in its 2005 summer flight schedule in order to improve operational reliability, reduce cancellations, and increase on-time performance by eliminating eight round trip flights per day. The reductions represented approximately 3.5% of original planned capacity in the third quarter. This schedule reduction is included in the forecasts below for ASMs and corresponding costs per ASM.
 

 
Forecast
  
Change
 
Q3
  
Yr/Yr
Alaska Airlines
      
Capacity (ASMs in millions)
5,807
  
(3.4)%
Fuel gallons (000,000)
92.8
  
(3.2)%
Cost per ASM as reported on
      
a GAAP basis (cents)*
10.4
  
5.7%
Less: Fuel cost per ASM (cents)*
3.0
  
39.2%
Cost per ASM excluding fuel (cents)*
7.4
 
0.5%

Alaska Airlines' July traffic decreased 2.1% to 1.633 billion RPMs from 1.668 billion flown a year earlier. Capacity during July was 1.986 billion ASMs, 5.5% lower than the 2.102 billion in July 2004. The passenger load factor (the percentage of available seats occupied by fare-paying passengers) for the month was 82.2%, compared to 79.4% in July 2004. The airline carried 1,633,500 passengers compared to 1,652,500 in July 2004.

In July 2005, RASM increased 11.3% compared to July 2004 due to higher load factors (caused in part by a decrease in capacity) and an increase in yields per RPM.

*For Alaska, our forecasts of cost per ASM and fuel cost per ASM are based on forward-looking estimates which will likely differ from actual results due to the volatility of fuel prices. There are several factors impacting our estimates including, but not limited to, the volatility of fuel prices and the finalization of labor agreements. As we are unable to apply “hedge accounting”, the majority of the benefit we realize from settled fuel hedge contracts is classified in other non-operating income on our statement of operations and is thus not reflected in fuel cost per ASM above. See page 6 for additional information regarding fuel costs. 

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Forecast
  
Change
 
Q3
  
Yr/Yr
Horizon Air
      
Capacity (ASMs in millions)
914
  
10.1%
Fuel gallons (000,000)
14.0
  
8.4%
Cost per ASM as reported on
      
a GAAP basis (cents)*
15.3
  
3.6%
Less: Fuel cost per ASM (cents)*
3.0
  
38.8%
Cost per ASM excluding fuel (cents)*
12.3
  
(2.5%)
 
Horizon Air's July traffic increased 11.3% to 237.7 million RPMs from 213.5 million flown a year earlier. Capacity for July was 309.8 million ASMs, 8.7% higher than the 284.9 million in July 2004. The passenger load factor for the month was 76.7%, compared to 74.9% in July 2004. The airline carried 610,200 passengers compared to 565,800 in July 2004.
  
In July 2005, RASM increased 1.6% compared to July 2004, due to increased load factors.

*For Horizon, our forecasts of cost per ASM and fuel cost per ASM are based on forward-looking estimates, which will likely differ significantly from actual results. There are several factors impacting our estimates including, but not limited to, the volatility of fuel prices. As we are unable to apply hedge accounting, the majority of the benefit we realize from settled fuel hedge contracts is classified in other non-operating income on our statement of operations and is thus not reflected in fuel cost per ASM above. See page 6 for additional information regarding fuel costs.
 
Other Financial Information
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $699 million at July 31, 2005 compared to $726 million at June 30, 2005. The decrease is primarily due to the delivery payment for a B737-800 aircraft that was delivered on July 1, 2005.
 
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Operating Fleet Plan

The following table provides a fleet summary for Alaska and Horizon for actual airplanes on hand as of the date of this report. There are no expected changes during the remainder of 2005:
 
Alaska Airlines
Seats
On Hand
August 16, 2005
B737-200C
111
7
B737-400
144
40
B737-700
120
22
B737-800
160
3
B737-900
172
12
MD-80
140
26
Total
  
110
     
 
Horizon Air
    
Q200
37
28
Q400
74
18
CRJ 700
70
19
Total
  
65

The following table summarizes aircraft commitments for Alaska (B737-800) and Horizon (CRJ 700) by year:
       
 
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Thereafter
Total
B737-800
10
8
5
3
6
3
35
CRJ 700
2
2
2
2
-
-
8
Totals
12
10
7
5
6
3
43

Fuel Hedging
We are providing unaudited information about fuel price movements and the impact of our hedging program on our financial results. Management believes it is useful to compare results between periods that exclude the mark-to-market hedging gains/losses associated with contracts that settle recorded on a GAAP basis and include the cash received or due on hedge positions settled during the period (although the related impact may have been recognized for financial reporting purposes in a prior period). We refer to this as the comparison of “economic fuel cost”, which is presented below for July 2005.

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Calculation of Economic Fuel Cost Per Gallon
July 2005
(unaudited)
  
Alaska Airlines
(000s)
  
Alaska Airlines Cost/Gal
 
Horizon Air
(000s)
  
Horizon Air Cost/Gal (cents)
  
Fuel expense before hedge activities (“raw fuel”)
  
$
57,315
  
$
1.85
  
$
8,876
  
$
1.89
  
Gains on settled hedges included in fuel expense
    
981
   
.03
    
147
    
.03
  
GAAP fuel expense
  
$
56,334
  
$
1.82
  
$
8,729
  
$
1.86
  
Gains on settled hedges included in non-operating income*
    
10,034
    
.33
    
1,499
    
.33
  
Economic fuel expense
 
$
46,300
  
$
1.49
  
$
7,230
  
$
1.53
  
% Change from prior year
    
12.8
%
  
21.7
%
  
30.1
%
  
21.9
%
 
 
Mark-to-Market Adjustment Related to Unsettled Hedges
Mark-to-market gains included in non-operating income related to hedges that settle in future periods
  
$
16,611
    
NM
  
$
2,482
    
NM
  
 
*Amounts may include mark-to-market hedging gains (losses) recognized in non-operating income (expense) in previous periods.
 
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Alaska Air Group’s future hedge positions are as follows:
 
Approximate % of Expected
Fuel Requirements
Approximate Crude
Oil Price per Barrel
Third Quarter 2005
50%
$28.81
Fourth Quarter 2005
50%
$31.85
First Quarter 2006
50%
$35.70
Second Quarter 2006
50%
$39.76
Third Quarter 2006
40%
$41.58
Fourth Quarter 2006
30%
$42.70
First Quarter 2007
20%
$43.09
Second Quarter 2007
19%
$45.11
Third Quarter 2007
22%
$45.27
Fourth Quarter 2007
17%
$47.89
First Quarter 2008
11%
$50.44
Second Quarter 2008
6%
$49.26
Third Quarter 2008
6%
$48.97
Fourth Quarter 2008
5%
$48.68

Signatures
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. 
Registrant

Date: August 16, 2005 

/s/ Brandon S. Pedersen  
Brandon S. Pedersen
Staff Vice President/Finance and Controller

/s/ Bradley D. Tilden  
Bradley D. Tilden
Executive Vice President/Finance and Chief Financial Officer
 
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