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Home Prices Are Falling in 3 Texas Metros and Portland, Oregon as High Rates Cool Demand for the Former Hotspots

Nationwide, price drops are at their highest level since November 2022, suggesting more metros may soon see sale prices decline

(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Home-sale prices are declining year over year in four major U.S. metros, three of them in Texas: Austin (-2.9%), San Antonio (-1.2%), Fort Worth (-1.2%) and Portland, OR (-0.9%). The last time prices fell in four or more metros was in January, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Nationwide, prices rose 4.4% from a year earlier to an all-time high during the four weeks ending June 2. But there are early indicators that national price growth could soften soon: 6.4% of U.S. home sellers cut their asking price, on average, the highest share since November 2022. And the typical active listing has been on the market for 46 days, up 2.3% year over year–the biggest increase in nine months, suggesting home listings are growing stale faster than they were a year ago.

Some listings are growing stale because high mortgage rates and housing costs are causing would-be buyers to back off. The weekly average mortgage rate rose back above 7% last week, pushing the median U.S. monthly housing payment to a near-record-high of $2,838. (It’s worth noting that daily average rates are declining this week after U.S. job openings fell to their lowest level in more than three years.) Pending home sales fell 3.8% year over year, the biggest decline in three months, and mortgage-purchase applications declined 4% week over week. Inventory is losing momentum, too, which is another reason sales are falling. New listings posted one of their smallest year-over-year increases (6.9%) since February, with high mortgage rates discouraging homeowners from selling because it would mean giving up their low rate and trying to offload their home in a relatively slow market.

“There’s no getting around the fact that it’s expensive to buy a home right now, but some people are having luck negotiating with sellers,” said Bonnie Phillips, a Redfin Premier agent in Cleveland. “I've seen buyers get a home under asking price when it has been on the market for a few weeks. That's especially true when their agent presents market data that supports a lower market value, like comps of similar homes nearby that have sold for less, or fewer than usual online views or tours. Other buyers are finding creative ways to afford a home, like buying a duplex, living in one unit and renting out the other.”

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including more on how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity

Value (if applicable)

Recent change

Year-over-year change

Source

Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.03% (June 5)

Up slightly from 6.99% 2 weeks earlier, but down from a 5-month high of 7.52% 5 weeks earlier

Up from 6.95%

Mortgage News Daily

Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.03% (week ending May 30)

Up from 6.94% a week earlier, but down from 5-month high of 7.22% a month earlier

Up from 6.79%

Freddie Mac

Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)

Declined 4% from a week earlier (as of week ending May 31)

Down 13%

Mortgage Bankers Association

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)

Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of week ending June 2)

Down 13%

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents

Touring activity

Up 23% from the start of the year (as of June 2)

At this time last year, it was up 10% from the start of 2023

ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Google searches for “home for sale”

Unchanged from a month earlier (as of June 3)

Down 18%

Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending June 2, 2024

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.

Four weeks ending June 2, 2024

Year-over-year change

Notes

Median sale price

$392,200

4.4%

All-time high

Median asking price

$417,274

5.9%

 

Median monthly mortgage payment

$2,836 at a 7.03% mortgage rate

8.7%

$26 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28

Pending sales

86,464

-3.8%

Biggest decline in over 3 months

New listings

98,467

6.9%

Smallest increase in over 4 months (with the exception of the 4 weeks ending May 5)

Active listings

923,747

15.8%

 

Months of supply

3.2

+0.6 pts.

4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.

Share of homes off market in two weeks

43.4%

Down from 48%

 

Median days on market

32

+3 days

 

Share of homes sold above list price

32%

Down from 34%

 

Share of homes with a price drop

6.4%

+2 pts.

Highest level since Nov. 2022

Average sale-to-list price ratio

99.6%

-0.2 pts.

 

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending June 2, 2024

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases

Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases

Notes

Median sale price

Anaheim, CA (17.3%)

Nassau County, NY (15.8%)

Newark, NJ (13.9%)

Cleveland, OH (13.9%)

Oakland, CA (13.8%)

Austin, TX (-2.9%)

San Antonio (-1.2%)

Fort Worth, TX (-1.2%)

Portland, OR (-0.9%)

Decreased in 4 metros

Pending sales

San Jose, CA (10.5%)

Anaheim, CA (7.1%)

Columbus, OH (7%)

San Diego (6.7%)

San Francisco (4.1%)

Houston (-15.5%)

West Palm Beach, FL (-14.6%)

Atlanta (-13.9%)

Fort Lauderdale, FL (-12%)

Virginia Beach, VA (-11.3%)

Increased in 14 metros

New listings

San Jose, CA (39.8%)

Phoenix (22.4%)

San Diego (21.2%)

Denver (18.4%)

Las Vegas (18%)

Atlanta (-9.3%)

Chicago (-5.5%)

Minneapolis (-3.6%)

Newark, NJ (-3.2%)

Portland, OR (-2.7%)

Decreased in 10 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-decline-austin

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

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