Beijing, China / TimesNewswire / January 19, 2023 – With the recent adjustments to China’s COVID-19 policies, experts are optimistic about its economic outlook, asserting that its economic resilience and huge domestic demand will spur a steady recovery.
The Chinese economy has maintained steady growth in the past year. And the country’s total trade of goods hit an all-time high in 2022, reaching 42.07 trillion yuan (about $6.28 trillion), up 7.7 percent from the previous year, data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) shows.
The total value of China’s trade in goods has topped the world for six consecutive years and exceeded 40 trillion yuan for the first time in 2022, with a 10.5-percent increase in exports and 4.3-percent increase in imports.
“It is not easy for China to reach a record-high trade volume last year. Countries around the globe were facing recession as the Ukraine conflict hit economies that already rocked by the pandemic,” said Bai Rangrang, associate professor of the Department of Applied Economics at the School of Management under Fudan University.
Official data also shows that China takes up 14.7 percent of the global export market, leading the world for 14 consecutive years.
“Apart from the important role that China plays in global trade, its exports also contributed greatly to its GDP growth. To some extent, it made up the gap in the drop of household consumption and business investment last year,” said Bai, noting that an important factor behind this is China has opened wider to the world.
It is notable that China’s import and export of mechanical and electrical products reached 20.66 trillion yuan (about $3.05 trillion), taking up 49.1 percent of total trade in goods. The export of lithium batteries and automobiles increased by 86.7 percent and 82.2 percent respectively, according to the GAC.
“These products are crucial in specific industrial chains,” said Bai, adding that without the large-scale export of these products, some industries in the U.S., Japan and other European countries would face a larger output gap and higher inflationary pressure.
With continuous adjustments to the pandemic response, the consumption and economic activities are gradually recovering. Bai said he is optimistic about China’s economic outlook in 2023 from the perspectives of both the economic cycle and government policies.
“The country has recently implemented a series of new measures to activate the vitality of economic entities, promote the construction of a national unified market and bolster the platform economy,” Bai noted.
World Economic Forum President Borge Brende also expressed his optimism in Chinese economy, saying that the country’s optimization of COVID-19 response will contribute to global growth.
“China plays an important role in bringing key stakeholders together and China has underlined the importance of continuation of trading with each other, something I think is very important,” he said.
For the past few months, China has sped up the optimization of its pandemic response, including downgrading the management of COVID-19 as a Class-B infectious disease. The move enables quarantine-free international travel, as well as boosting the domestic demand for traveling.
It is estimated that more than 2.1 billion passenger trips would be made during the Spring Festival season, the most important time for family reunions in traditional Chinese culture.
People who visit families and friends are expected to account for 55 percent of this year’s passenger flow, while job hunters and those who plan leisure travels and business travels take up roughly 24 percent and 10 percent respectively, official data released by the Chinese Ministry of Transport shows.
While people are on the way returning to their hometown, they are reminded of wearing masks and paying attention to their personal hygiene during the trip. They are also encouraged to plan an off-peak trip to minimize the risk of cross-infection.
As the first travel rush after the country optimized its COVID-19 policies with no requirements on nucleic acid tests and health code, the total number of trips on air, railway and road is expected to double the number of last year, and reach 70.3 percent over the same period in 2019 before the pandemic hit.
Since many people who leave their home to work or study have not returned home during the Spring Festival for the past two or three years, the rise in passenger flows reflects a rigid demand, indicating a good start of the economic recovery in the first quarter of 2023, said Bai.
