Are you better off than you were four years ago?
That was the question Ronald Reagan famously asked Americans in his one and only debate with Jimmy Carter in the fall of 1980. Soon thereafter, voters responded with a thunderous "No!" and turned the Democrat incumbent president out of office. Reagan won in a landslide, capturing 44 of 50 states.
Right now, just a month from a midterm election that will determine which party will control Congress, GOP candidates should ask that same question, asking voters to think about where we were two years ago, and where we are now.
They should ask whether the policies of Joe Biden’s White House and his Democrat colleagues have made their lives better or worse.
There is no question how voters will answer. People are struggling to pay their bills, finding it almost impossible to buy a house, still searching for scarce baby formula, afraid of the violent crime that stalks their neighborhoods, worried their kids might pick up fentanyl on Halloween, getting poorer by the day as the stock market drops and home prices too, alarmed by the migrants pouring into their cities and horrified by the woke indoctrination being spooned out by their children’s schools.
People see the economy turning down, jobs becoming less plentiful, their wages not keeping up with inflation and the Federal Reserve determined to engineer a recession to put things right. They see neighbors not working because government benefits have allowed them to stay home.
Sure, climate zealots are delighted with Joe Biden’s ruinous attack on fossil fuels, cheering the sky-rocketing gasoline and heating costs that they somehow believe will save the planet. Many women are aggrieved that voters have been empowered by the Supreme Court to determine abortion policy state by state.
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But notwithstanding the enormous money pouring into Democrat coffers, and the insistence by the New York Times and Washington Post that Joe Biden is riding a great come-back, voters are wising up.
Perhaps the most telling sign is a recent Gallup poll, in which people were asked which party can better handle the issue most important to them. Respondents picked Republicans over Democrats 48% to 37%, the highest margin earned by the party since 1946 and, according to political analysts, a strong indicator that the GOP will take both houses of Congress in November.
For sure, other surveys point in the opposite direction, including generic ballot polls which only slightly favor Republicans, and a slight improvement in President Biden’s approval ratings, but as voters appear to de-emphasize both abortion and the judicial system – issues on which Democrats score well – GOP hopes are rising.
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Other indicators that Republicans will perform well in the midterms include:
1. In a recent Economist/YouGov poll, 94% of respondents said "jobs and the economy" was important to them, topping every other concern except inflation, which scored the same. According to an average of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics, 59% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy. It is still (and always) the economy, stupid.
2. Critical senate races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona appear to be shifting in favor of Republicans.
3. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey of current economic conditions is down 20% from a year ago. The September reading, at 58.6, is up from June’s low of 50; that was the lowest figure ever recorded, going back to 1952. A result in the 50s has occurred only during recessions. By comparison, the election of Donald Trump caused the index to soar above 90, and occasionally above 100, up until the pandemic. Even then, the figure never dipped below 70.
4. Two-thirds of Americans think the country is off on the wrong track. Under Trump, only the arrival of COVID caused so many people think the nation was heading in the wrong direction.
5. The generic Congressional Ballot has begun to swing again towards Republicans, who now are slightly in the lead, according to Real Clear Politics. The Rasmussen poll of likely voters puts the GOP ahead by 4 points, up 3 from the prior week but down from a 10-point advantage this past summer. The recent improvement comes from better numbers from women and independent voters, trends that should concern Democrats. Also worrisome to Joe Biden’s party, only 66% of black voters said they would vote for a Democrat candidate.
Comparisons with the Trump years are not meant to encourage his return, but voters should be aware that the country – despite the horrors of COVID – was in a better place just two years ago that we are today. Joe Biden has visited disaster on this nation.
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In the run-up to an election, there is always the possibility of an October surprise – an unexpected event that can tip a race one way or another. The recent decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production falls into that category. Oil prices are likely to head higher, bringing increased costs for gasoline and home heating fuel. The nation is waking up to the real cost of Biden’s reckless war against fossil fuels and against American oil production; higher prices at the pump will hurt Democrats.
Sometimes the upset comes in the form of an unforeseen goof by a candidate, which is why Democrats who are leading in various races today, like New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Pennsylvania Senate contender Lt. Gov. John Fetterman are avoiding debates.
Who can blame them? Imagine trying to defend Democrats’ record on inflation, crime or immigration. Or, imagine having to stand by Joe Biden, with his reckless and insulting attacks on tens of millions of Americans.
By November 8 voters will have decided who will control Congress. The outcome will surely reflect whether they are better off today than they were two years ago. The answer is: they are not, thanks to Joe Biden and the Democrats.
