Voters in the 2020 battleground state of North Carolina lean toward former Presiden Trump in 2024 by a 5.4 point margin over incumbent President Biden, a new poll conducted after Super Tuesday shows.
The statewide poll conducted by Cygnal from March 6-7 and published by the Carolina Journal on Tuesday found that 45.2% of likely voters said they are planning to vote for Trump, while 39.8% said they plan to vote for Biden.
A substantial amount – 9.4% – of likely voters indicated that they plan to vote for "someone else." If that actualizes, as the Journal noted, that would be a marked increase from the less than 1.5% of North Carolina votes cast in 2020 for a third party candidate.
"Trump’s lead is somewhat unsurprising given that he won the state in 2016 and 2020, by 3.6% and 1.3%, respectively. However, it’s still 238 days to November 5, and we’ll be watching to see how this fluctuates," Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson said.
As for the state's gubernatorial race, 43.8% of likely voters said they'd cast their ballots for Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a sizable 4.8-point lead over the 39.0% who said they'd vote for Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein. The poll showed that a majority of rural voters, 53%, indicated that they planned to vote for Robinson.
A plurality of suburban and urban voters, 46% and 47%, respectively, said they'd vote for Stein.
"Both Josh Stein and Mark Robinson have shown the ability to win statewide races and raise money – the race for the Executive Mansion is the one to watch in North Carolina," Bryson said.
The Journal noted increased support for Republican candidates in every race polled.
In a recent shakeup noteworthy for Trump's influence on politics in the Tar Heel State, Republican newcomer Michele Morrow, a home-schooling parent critical of public schools' "radical agendas" on race and gender ideology, recently won in the state GOP primary against current Republican North Carolina Superintendent of Public Instruction Catherine Truitt. The new poll published Tuesday found 40.8% of likely voters support Morrow, while 39.1% said they planned to vote for Democrat Maurice "Mo" Green to hold the top North Carolina schools position in November.
"Superintendent Catherine Truitt’s primary election loss and four open seats make 2024 a volatile year for the North Carolina Council of State," Bryson said. "Aside from the drama of these individual races, there is also the question of whether Republicans can maintain their majority on the Council, which also makes policy decisions."
The poll found immigration was the top issue for voters statewide overall.
