In a two-way ballot test in the Peach State, former President Trump maintains a slim majority, while President Biden sees a 2-point improvement since January, according to the latest Fox News Poll of Georgia registered voters released Thursday.
Trump holds steady with 51% support in the rematch (same as in January), while 45% of voters back Biden (up from 43%). That 6-point difference is just inside the poll’s margin of error.
Biden’s movement can be attributed to modest gains among Black voters (76% now vs. 71% in January) and voters under age 35 (49% vs. 43%), as well as a notable shift among the small subgroup of independents. In January, Trump had the advantage by 20 points (51% to 31% Biden), while the two presumptive candidates are tied today (42% each).
Trump’s coalition has held relatively steady, with some of his best groups being White evangelical Christians (83%), White men without a degree (75%), rural voters (67%), and voters ages 65 and over (58%).
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"Trump stalled at 49% in 2020 and GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker was at 48-49% in 2022," says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. "If Georgia voters have soured on Democrats even a little bit, the state is a major pickup opportunity for Trump."
In a hypothetical five-way race, Trump has a 7-point lead over Biden (46% to 39%), with third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (7%), Cornel West (2%), and Jill Stein (1%) in single digits. This is about where the race stood in January.
"Georgia may be the weakest state from Biden’s 2020 coalition," says Shaw. "On the plus side, if he can rally African Americans and younger voters, he might be able to recreate his 2020 victory. On the minus side, he might have maxed out that vote in 2020 and it’s unclear how compelling his message is to these voters in 2024. I’m in the minority on this point, but it seems North Carolina might be a more promising target this time around."
On specific issues, Georgia continues to favor Trump, as he is seen as better able to handle — mostly by double-digits — five out of seven issues.
Notably, Trump has the advantage on the two issues that have been dominating the campaign: immigration (Trump preferred by 23 points) and the economy (+22). He is also favored on foreign policy (+15) and energy policy (+8).
On other issues, neither candidate has a significant advantage: Trump has the edge on abortion (+2), whereas Biden is narrowly ahead on health care (+2) and election integrity (+3).
Forty-four percent of voters feel they are falling behind financially vs. 41% who are holding steady and 15% who are getting ahead. Voters saying they are falling behind go for Trump by 54 points, while those getting ahead/holding steady go for Biden by 31 points.
Voters view Trump more favorably than Biden and see the former president as more mentally fit for the job than the incumbent.
By a 2-point margin, Georgians view Trump favorably (50% favorable vs. 48% unfavorable), a reversal from July 2022 when he was viewed negatively by 11 points (43% vs. 54%). They also see Trump as having the mental soundness to serve effectively as president (54% has mental soundness vs. 44% does not).
Biden’s favorable rating is underwater by 15 points (42% favorable vs. 57% unfavorable), and more say he lacks the mental soundness to serve by 22 points (38% mentally sound vs. 60% not).
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Biden’s job approval rating is also upside down: 42% approve vs. 58% disapprove, which is about where it was in January.
A few more things…
— Views on Kennedy are split, with 39% rating him favorably, 39% unfavorably, and 22% unable to rate him. Democrats are more likely to view him negatively (31% favorable, 46% unfavorable), while Republicans are the opposite (45% favorable, 36% unfavorable). Independents are somewhat split (38% favorable, 33% unfavorable).
— By a 6-point margin, Georgia voters think the Biden administration is too supportive of the Palestinians (27%) rather than too supportive of the Israelis (21%) in the war in the Middle East. Still, 4 in 10 think Biden’s support of each is about right (39%). Democrats are almost 7 times more likely than Republicans to think there’s too much support for the Israelis, while Republicans are 4 times more likely to think there’s too much support for the Palestinians.
— In a hypothetical U.S. House race, Georgians prefer the Republican candidate by 8 points (50% to 42% for the Democrat).
Conducted April 11-16 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,128 Georgia registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (150) and cellphones (699) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (279). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. When necessary, weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population.
