A leading nonpartisan political handicapper is shifting five crucial swing states and one key congressional district toward former President Trump in his 2024 election rematch with President Biden.
The ratings move by the highly regarded Cook Report comes in reaction to new polling in the race between Biden and Trump after the president's disastrous debate performance against Trump in their face-to-face showdown two weeks ago.
The Cook Report publisher and editor-in-chief Amy Walter shifted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from "toss up" to "lean Republican," pushed Minnesota and New Hampshire from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat," and also moved Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District from "likely" to "lean Democrat." (Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that divide their electoral votes by congressional district.)
"The notion that the presidential race is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate," longtime Cook Report analyst Dave Wasserman argued in a social media post. "Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes."
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Wasserman emphasized that "Biden’s post-debate dip represents the biggest polling shift of the year," with Trump topping the president 47%-44% in the Cook Report's new national polling average, which they premiered early Wednesday. "Trump’s current numbers among Black and Latino voters are incompatible with any plausible Democratic victory scenario."
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A slew of national and key battleground state polls conducted entirely after the debate and released last week and this week contain plenty of red flags for the president – including Trump widening his single-digit edge over Biden and deepening concerns of Americans about whether Biden was up to the task of running the country.
Following his extremely rough debate performance in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 27, Biden has been attempting to prove that he still has the stamina and acuity to handle the toughest and most demanding job in the world. And he's trying to prove that he has the fortitude to defeat Trump.
The debate was a major setback for Biden, who at 81 is the oldest president in the nation's history. His halting delivery and stumbling answers at the showdown in Atlanta sparked widespread panic in the Democratic Party and a rising tide of public and private calls from within his own party for him to step aside as its 2024 standard-bearer.
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Since the debate, seven House Democrats have publicly called on Biden to end his re-election bid, and a growing number of both House and Senate Democrats have publicly and privately warned that the president will lose to Trump in November.
But Biden, at rallies and fundraising events since the debate, has repeatedly emphasized that he's staying in the race.
In a letter sent to congressional Democrats on Monday as they returned from the July 4th holiday recess, the president reiterated that he's "firmly committed to staying in this race" and argued that "the question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it is time for it to end. We have one job. And that is to beat Donald Trump."
"Any weakening of resolve or lack of clarity about the task ahead only helps Trump and hurts us," the president added. "It is time to come together, move forward as a unified party, and defeat Donald Trump."
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Walter, in her analysis on the ratings switch, wrote that "plenty of nervous down-ballot Democrats and donors are hoping that team Biden, confronted with worsening poll numbers and an aggressively antagonistic press corps, will see the writing on the wall and gracefully announce his exit from the contest. That possibility looks remote as of this writing."
The move by the Cook Report is the second major shift by a leading nonpartisan political handicapper in the wake of the debate.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball last week moved Michigan from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss-up." Additionally, Minnesota was shifted from "Likely Democrat" to "Leans Democrat."
"President Biden’s debate performance was so bad that it has forced us to reassess some of our assumptions about the race," Sabato Crystal Ball forecaster Kyle Kondik wrote in explaining the shift of the two states. "Michigan and Minnesota move to more competitive categories in our ratings."
Biden re-election campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon, in a memo last week ahead of the release of some high-profile public opinion surveys, emphasized that their internal polling showed "a steady race."
"We estimate that we're down just 1 point in margin. All of this is well within the margin of error and shows a steady race," she added.
